TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Qatar Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rublevof Tsitsipas, Rublev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$409,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$484,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Tsitsipas20c44,283$8,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,668.482,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Tsitsipas29c35,666$10,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,172.432,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Rublev76c22,209$16,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,387.0527460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7478…b748backed Rublev75c14,984$11,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.54785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+47.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Rublev55c9,597$5,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,319.9843051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Tsitsipas45c7,716$3,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.6831332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Rublev62c6,725$4,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,558.9693055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd130…02a3backed Tsitsipas25c6,479$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Rublev80c6,250$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25018756.1%105 W · 82 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tsitsipas33c6,075$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Tsitsipas44c5,817$2,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.0638133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Tsitsipas29c5,677$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.6181349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Tsitsipas43c5,137$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,183.431,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Tsitsipas22c4,589$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00055646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Tsitsipas42c4,442$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.4676140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Tsitsipas43c4,423$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.892360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Tsitsipas43c4,258$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.9316636.7%61 W · 105 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Tsitsipas23c4,177$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.4628444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54e4…119bbacked Rublev57c4,146$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…2a72backed Rublev75c3,875$2,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.961973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Tsitsipas45c3,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57544163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba8…9accbacked Tsitsipas23c3,396$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.924117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Rublev59c3,373$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.014560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Rublev77c2,919$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.6537854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Rublev64c2,750$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.723,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4304…1c4ebacked Rublev57c2,650$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.56100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Tsitsipas25c2,513$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.3345343.9%199 W · 254 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Rublev67c2,439$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.4597046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Tsitsipas10c2,345$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.62,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Tsitsipas44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Rublev75c2,266$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.1121147.9%101 W · 110 L-16.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15ae…6ccdbacked Rublev57c2,172$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.961580%12 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Rublev55c2,118$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.4724643.9%108 W · 138 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Tsitsipas22c2,116$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.5623731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Rublev75c2,100$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51724060.8%146 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Rublev58c2,000$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.884459.1%26 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Tsitsipas44c2,000$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.6815447.4%73 W · 81 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d56…21b8backed Tsitsipas41c1,946$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…6e1bbacked Rublev59c1,902$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Rublev63c1,866$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.0899044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Rublev56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.714742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Rublev55c1,762$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.9619134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Rublev57c1,703$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.751,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe89…204cbacked Rublev58c1,682$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x795f…fbdabacked Tsitsipas23c1,662$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.3411417.5%20 W · 94 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa10…0570backed Rublev58c1,647$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.313100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab6b…4026backed Rublev57c1,642$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.061464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Tsitsipas6c1,600$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97525.8%3 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Rublev73c1,533$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.051,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x890b…97bebacked Rublev56c1,530$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ad…6ed7backed Tsitsipas43c1,511$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.8350%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Rublev57c1,500$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.848762.1%54 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Rublev58c1,500$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Tsitsipas41c1,500$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.985149%25 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Tsitsipas42c1,484$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.0524448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Rublev58c1,290$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.84744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Rublev57c1,285$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.0146553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Rublev57c1,250$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.545457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfded…312cbacked Rublev57c1,224$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.322770.4%19 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed Rublev58c1,207$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Tsitsipas43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.991,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Tsitsipas42c1,194$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.671,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Rublev56c1,159$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5101,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed13…a708backed Rublev57c1,130$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Rublev56c1,060$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.9358359.2%345 W · 238 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5d…4183backed Rublev57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.6314250.7%72 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tsitsipas42c1,042$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.051,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Tsitsipas42c1,035$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.576149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Rublev58c1,029$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.836934.8%24 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdafb…0bfcbacked Rublev57c1,018$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Rublev59c1,015$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.6314568.3%99 W · 46 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Tsitsipas41c1,006$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.6421338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed Tsitsipas41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4102445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Rublev71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29022553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Rublev59c996.83$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.991,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d24…9661backed Rublev58c979.21$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.271850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Tsitsipas43c930.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4008450%42 W · 42 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Rublev79c900$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1899567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Rublev57c879.96$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.38450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6007…d1bebacked Rublev57c837$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.911656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Rublev56c835.25$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.5172452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Tsitsipas41c825.97$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.867,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1c…a94dbacked Rublev75c750$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.52733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Tsitsipas41c749.97$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.494,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Rublev58c715.52$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.5226158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…5286backed Tsitsipas33c700$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23313134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf4…ed22backed Tsitsipas40c700$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28018447.3%87 W · 97 L+16.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31c8…f2d8backed Tsitsipas36c699.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507632.9%25 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed Rublev71c699.99$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.654047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Rublev59c699.98$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.998143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Rublev72c688.72$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.14,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Rublev60c666.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.675267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Tsitsipas40c657.5$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2631,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Tsitsipas22c644.2$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14011530.4%35 W · 80 L-10.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Tsitsipas42c614.4$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.058343.4%36 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f7…d106backed Tsitsipas19c600$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11412227%33 W · 89 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Tsitsipas23c598.34$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.626,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Rublev56c589.29$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.2911353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Tsitsipas42c568.86$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9616340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Tsitsipas43c568.67$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.7453058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.