World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d648e34ef95148787253a410db6a34d88c5809b090e7b5cd159f91b9a06f925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe379…6c49backed Yes | 5c | 9,454$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…fdcabacked Yes | 7c | 6,894$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 4c | 4,811$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,947$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.86 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 5c | 2,777$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…2122backed Yes | 5c | 2,131$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…041ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,030$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5a…6509backed Yes | 5c | 1,431$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…5379backed Yes | 8c | 1,221$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,165$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 4c | 1,065$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…2589backed Yes | 8c | 972.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbb…bdd2backed Yes | 4c | 784.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…bf90backed Yes | 7c | 768.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 618$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…8b28backed Yes | 5c | 612$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…9c3cbacked Yes | 8c | 606.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…0f62backed Yes | 9c | 519.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…51f8backed Yes | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes | 7c | 356.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…b694backed Yes | 7c | 330.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.26per pick | 32cpaid | -86%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…2cb6backed Yes | 9c | 242$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…debcbacked Yes | 4c | 235.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3f…5d43backed Yes | 6c | 232.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…f9e1backed Yes | 6c | 215$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…8725backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…60b7backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 188.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…a396backed Yes | 9c | 123.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 98.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will another party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian ElectionYes won
- Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.