Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d7a3a293669b86c03e226f1a962850ab13d544e42b9ae50a8cef9f650e69254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Etcheverryof Etcheverry, Kjaer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Etcheverry | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Etcheverry | 65c | 1,743$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.59 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kjaer | 10c | 1,542$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kjaer | 45c | 1,522$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.74 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Kjaer | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Kjaer | 45c | 1,000$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.45 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Etcheverry | 54c | 997$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.62 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kjaer | 32c | 987.86$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.3 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Etcheverry | 58c | 914.76$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.2 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Etcheverry | 54c | 772$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.04 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Kjaer | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kjaer | 42c | 443$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kjaer | 36c | 389.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kjaer | 43c | 298.74$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.54 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Etcheverry | 70c | 213.39$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kjaer | 46c | 188.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Etcheverry | 58c | 155.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Etcheverry | 57c | 113.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Etcheverry | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Kjaer | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Etcheverry | 57c | 89.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kjaer | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Kjaer | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…96a8backed Etcheverry | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…890fbacked Kjaer | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Etcheverry | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.