Asian League · resolved market
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-07-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d850d913db1b52e40f463a3cf146214fde664569855d81988c96847dc2c28ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 41c | 1,212$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.07 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked No | 16c | 734.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31f3…0eacbacked No | 61c | 728.44$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.63 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…f59bbacked Yes | 30c | 699.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked No | 53c | 614.43$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…920dbacked No | 70c | 536.82$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.61 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…0108backed No | 51c | 385.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Yes | 49c | 204.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 58c | 179.68$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 62c | 177.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 38c | 156$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 152.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…4bfbbacked No | 69c | 148.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 38c | 110.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 326 | 54%176 W · 150 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 103.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…4982backed Yes | 49c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 38c | 100.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…1471backed No | 69c | 94.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Yes | 39c | 86.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…b965backed Yes | 50c | 79.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 48c | 73.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 42c | 72.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Yes | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed No | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…f046backed No | 31c | 53.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed No | 59c | 50.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 41c | 49.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 38c | 33.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 43c | 31.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 58c | 30.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 42c | 24.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-07-11?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-07-11?Yes won
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.