Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-07-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59c7473aeeb62b01d62979e838939290fd424c9d30a9dfda670169fd409af195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x452f…f59bbacked No | 39c | 899.93$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked Yes | 6c | 739.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31f3…0eacbacked Yes | 38c | 725.72$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.22 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 31c | 676.95$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.1 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 62c | 362.98$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.94 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 59c | 253.17$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +17.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Yes | 59c | 252.85$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Yes | 60c | 226.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 63c | 171.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 58c | 170.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 59c | 168.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 62c | 149.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 141.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 121.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 69c | 117.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked No | 62c | 110.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed No | 42c | 101.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 72c | 99.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 62c | 93.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 37c | 90.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 35c | 82.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed No | 65c | 77.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f3f8backed Yes | 35c | 77.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9931…d95bbacked Yes | 57c | 76.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…e129backed Yes | 63c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Yes | 43c | 70.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…920dbacked No | 42c | 63.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…f9ebbacked Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 44c | 58.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 326 | 54%176 W · 150 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Yes | 61c | 47.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 65c | 45.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 63c | 39.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Yes | 60c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…46c4backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked No | 61c | 20.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…b1fbbacked Yes | 59c | 18.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 64c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-07-11?this page
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-07-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.