Olympics · resolved market
Will Cole Hocker (USA) win Gold in 1500m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da82934cc7a80e9a09a28a263c7a35a187a677022454f94998eeb9b20b22982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8297…1708backed No | 4c | 3,076$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.3 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd659…0c67backed Yes | 4c | 1,638$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,419.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…e5ddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,280$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +684.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 4c | 682$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +176.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc1…874dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 4c | 399.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.57 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 4c | 345$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…3e25backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cole Hocker (USA) win Gold in 1500m?this page
- Will George Mills (GBR) win Gold in 1500m?No won
- Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 1500m?No won
- Will Josh Kerr (GBR) win Gold in 1500m?No won
- Will Reynold Cheruiyot (KEN) win Gold in 1500m?No won
- Will Timothy Cheruiyot (KEN) win Gold in 1500m?No won
- Will Yared Nuguse (USA) win Gold in 1500m?No won
- Will another athlete win Gold in 1500m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.