Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc0dc74b28a0bfd3d7f7bc92a636f05230be4a08a5fcf33cb451ff1f8277c89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,866 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 3,609$2,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.66 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 3,436$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.2 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 24c | 1,158$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.69 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Over | 24c | 1,096$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 27c | 759.91$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 15c | 732$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 7c | 263.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 6c | 239.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 68c | 136.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 32c | 105.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 31c | 78.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 25c | 67.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 26c | 65.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 24c | 52.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 71c | 40.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 26c | 40.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…868fbacked Over | 32c | 40.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 28c | 35.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 78c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 75c | 17.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…ea8ebacked Under | 70c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 78c | 13.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.