Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dcdfcc577d040392981204072dac9e576f2ac7141a096088ca959c847b1dd27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Liquid | 66c | 2,558$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.01 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked ex-HEROIC | 33c | 1,233$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.65 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd472…a5b2backed Team Liquid | 68c | 955.18$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked ex-HEROIC | 36c | 849.66$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.76 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…9384backed ex-HEROIC | 35c | 674.29$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed ex-HEROIC | 36c | 580.83$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.51 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed ex-HEROIC | 32c | 436.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed ex-HEROIC | 34c | 366.23$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.53 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…948bbacked Team Liquid | 60c | 322.32$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked ex-HEROIC | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Liquid | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed ex-HEROIC | 33c | 290.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Liquid | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ex-HEROIC | 32c | 158.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Liquid | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Team Liquid | 60c | 117$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed ex-HEROIC | 34c | 111.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked ex-HEROIC | 32c | 101.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed ex-HEROIC | 40c | 89.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…99f9backed Team Liquid | 69c | 71.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed ex-HEROIC | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Liquid | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Team Liquid | 66c | 43.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Team Liquid | 60c | 36.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Liquid | 61c | 32.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…2998backed Team Liquid | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed ex-HEROIC | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed ex-HEROIC | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.