TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, ex-HEROIC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,711 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed ex-HEROIC19c26,032$5,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,063.721,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked ex-HEROIC16c9,046$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.41,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Liquid79c9,000$7,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked ex-HEROIC17c7,152$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.631,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed ex-HEROIC18c6,229$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.6442650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed ex-HEROIC17c5,707$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.191,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed ex-HEROIC15c5,177$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.9645750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed ex-HEROIC16c4,251$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.7288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked ex-HEROIC17c2,063$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.5389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed ex-HEROIC16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32068649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed ex-HEROIC17c1,765$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked ex-HEROIC18c1,669$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0229548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ex-HEROIC17c1,411$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.981,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed ex-HEROIC17c1,405$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2256548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed ex-HEROIC19c1,241$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.81,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ex-HEROIC15c900$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed ex-HEROIC25c805.69$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.423148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed ex-HEROIC17c654.75$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Liquid75c646.09$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.4117146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked ex-HEROIC17c554.37$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0120452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Liquid80c540$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10856852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked ex-HEROIC21c523.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed ex-HEROIC3c454.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.046132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Team Liquid72c441$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.874452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Liquid80c395.88$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.172,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a0…111abacked Team Liquid80c329.45$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.746547.7%31 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Liquid77c320.95$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Team Liquid80c311.56$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3122363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Team Liquid79c300$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.837655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed ex-HEROIC17c293.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2516242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed ex-HEROIC20c289.33$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8751140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-HEROIC11c257$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.421,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked ex-HEROIC17c252.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6453139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed ex-HEROIC17c249.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked ex-HEROIC13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked ex-HEROIC16c177.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3930054.7%164 W · 136 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked ex-HEROIC18c134.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9137223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6ea8…0491backed Team Liquid80c130$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2624041.3%99 W · 141 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked ex-HEROIC17c125$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2550749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked ex-HEROIC20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.870236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed ex-HEROIC20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2480742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ex-HEROIC15c99.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9118550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Liquid79c98.42$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.671,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Liquid80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed ex-HEROIC19c79.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158647.7%41 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Liquid76c65.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9126846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Liquid80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1092561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c27…21a9backed Team Liquid74c49.12$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.755470.4%38 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Team Liquid76c45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86842.6%29 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eda…4498backed Team Liquid80c16.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3610562.9%66 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.