Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x515253e3da53239fda170fed47184e62c2a57f317ca5d070487677cad99e11f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed ex-HEROIC | 13c | 23,251$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed ex-HEROIC | 19c | 12,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.41 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed ex-HEROIC | 4c | 6,409$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.32 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed ex-HEROIC | 14c | 4,075$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.54 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed ex-HEROIC | 11c | 3,314$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.82 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Team Liquid | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…273dbacked ex-HEROIC | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…0ddabacked Team Liquid | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed ex-HEROIC | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Team Liquid | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked ex-HEROIC | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked ex-HEROIC | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed ex-HEROIC | 7c | 972.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 830$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked ex-HEROIC | 15c | 766$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -14.0wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Liquid | 78c | 744$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked ex-HEROIC | 10c | 674.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked ex-HEROIC | 18c | 566.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf5…45b6backed ex-HEROIC | 4c | 532.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…21b9backed ex-HEROIC | 19c | 501$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed ex-HEROIC | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed ex-HEROIC | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed ex-HEROIC | 19c | 499.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…5521backed ex-HEROIC | 16c | 484.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…9fbabacked ex-HEROIC | 19c | 448.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked ex-HEROIC | 16c | 427$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed ex-HEROIC | 13c | 400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed ex-HEROIC | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked ex-HEROIC | 11c | 299.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 243 | 43.6%106 W · 137 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed Team Liquid | 80c | 266$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…a146backed ex-HEROIC | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed ex-HEROIC | 16c | 199.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked ex-HEROIC | 15c | 173$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -8.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed ex-HEROIC | 16c | 145$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Liquid | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed ex-HEROIC | 15c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed ex-HEROIC | 17c | 104.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed ex-HEROIC | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked ex-HEROIC | 12c | 98.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed ex-HEROIC | 18c | 93.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Team Liquid | 80c | 50.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Team Liquid | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked ex-HEROIC | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Liquid | 80c | 31.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Team Liquid | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.