Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd612d2d212c4d3eaf0632d63393fca78195196489d8995a7b1a6dffa8e276fde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, ex-HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed ex-HEROIC | 23c | 10,724$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.43 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Liquid | 79c | 10,103$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.64 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed ex-HEROIC | 21c | 10,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked ex-HEROIC | 20c | 8,607$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.57 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked ex-HEROIC | 22c | 8,127$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.71 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid | 80c | 5,117$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed ex-HEROIC | 20c | 4,460$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.07 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Team Liquid | 79c | 4,000$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Team Liquid | 80c | 3,703$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.6 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked ex-HEROIC | 20c | 3,417$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.54 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Liquid | 76c | 3,017$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.6 | 198 | 47%93 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed ex-HEROIC | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ex-HEROIC | 18c | 2,826$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.8 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Team Liquid | 77c | 2,685$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.48 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ex-HEROIC | 18c | 2,530$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.5 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed Team Liquid | 78c | 2,326$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.76 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 2,100$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.67 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked ex-HEROIC | 8c | 1,834$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed ex-HEROIC | 14c | 1,440$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.19 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ex-HEROIC | 18c | 1,140$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed ex-HEROIC | 21c | 994.58$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.79 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Team Liquid | 77c | 955.25$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.05 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed ex-HEROIC | 14c | 853.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Liquid | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ex-HEROIC | 18c | 767.24$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed ex-HEROIC | 22c | 735.84$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.24 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Liquid | 78c | 710$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Liquid | 76c | 687.38$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 640$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed ex-HEROIC | 20c | 628.75$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Team Liquid | 79c | 603.8$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Team Liquid | 78c | 510$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed ex-HEROIC | 19c | 473.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Team Liquid | 77c | 375.84$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Liquid | 79c | 368$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked ex-HEROIC | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed ex-HEROIC | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked ex-HEROIC | 21c | 263.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked ex-HEROIC | 15c | 250.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…37b0backed Team Liquid | 80c | 230$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…0257backed ex-HEROIC | 6c | 216$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Team Liquid | 77c | 152.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…3e2abacked ex-HEROIC | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 300 | 41.3%124 W · 176 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Liquid | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed ex-HEROIC | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Team Liquid | 80c | 83.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Liquid | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked ex-HEROIC | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Team Liquid | 80c | 75.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed ex-HEROIC | 21c | 71.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed ex-HEROIC | 28c | 46.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Team Liquid | 72c | 43.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Liquid | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…abfebacked Team Liquid | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…4498backed Team Liquid | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…1d1fbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group ATeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.