TailMyPicks
Market

Ligue 1 · resolved market

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Metzof Paris Saint-Germain FC, FC Metz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,875
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,875 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e0…024ebacked FC Metz66c7,557$4,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.361650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Paris Saint-Germain FC34c4,745$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.9871140.2%286 W · 425 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC2c4,080$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.411,41540.8%577 W · 838 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Paris Saint-Germain FC32c1,422$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.091,91645.5%872 W · 1,044 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed FC Metz78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Paris Saint-Germain FC33c764.01$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.699348.4%45 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC34c746$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.642653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34a2…b10bbacked FC Metz59c617.68$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Paris Saint-Germain FC45c434$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.22520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Paris Saint-Germain FC36c412.65$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505156.9%29 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Paris Saint-Germain FC37c372.65$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4223151.5%119 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked FC Metz60c225$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9016242%68 W · 94 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Metz63c221.42$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7627244.9%122 W · 150 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed FC Metz54c200.82$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3837638.8%146 W · 230 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5732…9030backed Paris Saint-Germain FC36c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC38c182.36$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.38333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC37c162.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked FC Metz63c161.25$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6635650.6%180 W · 176 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506142.6%26 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4522…ff26backed Paris Saint-Germain FC38c131.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.41330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC67c103.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.647529.3%22 W · 53 L-14.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-48.2%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed FC Metz66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3431049.4%153 W · 157 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FC Metz57c85.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1562648.6%304 W · 322 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6e…cbf7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC36c78.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed FC Metz64c62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.321040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207044.3%31 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed FC Metz58c57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-56.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Paris Saint-Germain FC35c52.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3322927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked FC Metz66c51.45$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.491566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Paris Saint-Germain FC38c48.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+35.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x497e…1161backed Paris Saint-Germain FC37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5485…231cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0a…ada0backed FC Metz58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…5075backed FC Metz65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC36c30.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed FC Metz61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked FC Metz63c16.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.012142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.