Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dd6c37ccc6b9120fe87cdda62e55658fede5d79382d7ad0316653d5e7201756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Metzof Paris Saint-Germain FC, FC Metz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked FC Metz | 66c | 7,557$4,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 34c | 4,745$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.98 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 2c | 4,080$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 32c | 1,422$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.09 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed FC Metz | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 33c | 764.01$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.69 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 34c | 746$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…b10bbacked FC Metz | 59c | 617.68$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 45c | 434$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 36c | 412.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 37c | 372.65$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked FC Metz | 60c | 225$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Metz | 63c | 221.42$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed FC Metz | 54c | 200.82$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…9030backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 38c | 182.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 37c | 162.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked FC Metz | 63c | 161.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 38c | 131.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 67c | 103.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed FC Metz | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC Metz | 57c | 85.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6e…cbf7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 36c | 78.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed FC Metz | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed FC Metz | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 35c | 52.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked FC Metz | 66c | 51.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 38c | 48.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…231cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0a…ada0backed FC Metz | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…5075backed FC Metz | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed FC Metz | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked FC Metz | 63c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)this page
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.