Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5071d544811d924e83697d2daa05a8ebf6ff33619f06ef58f6eb3b286c100493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 5,548$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.17 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 65c | 4,930$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.33 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 72c | 1,824$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.96 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 56c | 1,800$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 74c | 800$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed Under | 42c | 248.1$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 72c | 154.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 29c | 101.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 29c | 79.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 27c | 73.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 28c | 57.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 42.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 47c | 42.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 71c | 36.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Over | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.