Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf9970e93e150c67c8cc22e8f4dd5e7ddf038853bfc641c5534cd1d8dc53016d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 26,586$12,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,883.76 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…2b5dbacked Over | 52c | 8,796$4,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,222.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…6ca3backed Over | 52c | 5,675$2,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 52c | 5,135$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 52c | 3,094$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 50c | 2,945$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.91 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…f456backed Over | 52c | 2,844$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 49c | 1,790$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.06 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 1,741$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.51 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 1,575$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.98 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 52c | 980.77$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 74c | 964.86$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 51c | 606.14$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.37 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 606$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.12 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 320.56$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 256.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…aa06backed Under | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…4d1cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 32c | 170$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 45c | 145.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 50c | 120.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…fee8backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…6a00backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.