Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ddb7d2ebe78bb440f56901db7eff9bf8976069cc801a7430877c3637d7a1417
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 67c | 3,297$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.52 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 52c | 2,062$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.17 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 33c | 1,844$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.04 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 34c | 1,514$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…3051backed Under | 55c | 1,396$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 45c | 1,037$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.65 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 329$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 286.15$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 124.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 32c | 98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Under | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 64c | 77.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 67c | 64.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 36c | 54.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 79cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2ebbbacked Under | 43c | 41.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 53c | 37.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 28.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 80c | 27.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 53c | 24.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 65c | 23.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.