Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b26ea28a0120228bcd9ab395e28ce2df32a649758602b7fa753482b08097b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 57c | 756.57$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.93 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 32c | 710$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.89 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 49c | 455.72$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.83 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Under | 40c | 350$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 57c | 234.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 11c | 213.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 178.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 56c | 147.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 134.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 77c | 116.35$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 94.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 61c | 87.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 44c | 58.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…0324backed Under | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Under | 40c | 36.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.