Movies · resolved market
Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de7c3750fc75dadc07d99af2437e6c40c0538458b1925063b9c70235b1a4a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 17c | 1,423$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.92 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 11c | 674.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 620.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.42 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa184…da3bbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 394.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.09 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…dc67backed Yes | 19c | 380$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58d…8bfbbacked Yes | 13c | 360$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +269.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…4223backed Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +406%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8eb…ca5cbacked Yes | 19c | 220$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…3b90backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb940…deb0backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…3f3cbacked Yes | 19c | 197$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…06f1backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +245.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 119.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa857…1dcebacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…ad9bbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +243.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…3fe1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…9b21backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 79c | 94.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…e219backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 60c | 70.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…ddfdbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…3398backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…214abacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 42.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…0cdfbacked Yes | 40c | 42.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 76c | 19.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?this page
- Will 'Conclave' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?No won
- Will 'Emilia Pérez' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?No won
- Will 'The Brutalist' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?No won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.