Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4def2e97a07eb1c6d036ec48195546d07b76071c4c53fc1d4f1f4cb49358feee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 67c | 3,246$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 1,557$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 71c | 774.65$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.65 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 26c | 471.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 31c | 389.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 73c | 261.81$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 49c | 221$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 201.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.74 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked No | 48c | 170$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 69c | 155.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed No | 42c | 106.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Yes | 61c | 102.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 101.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 16c | 93.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 51c | 58.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 38c | 53.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…81ecbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 65c | 40.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Yes | 72c | 32.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…80ddbacked Yes | 63c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 70c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-02-22?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.