TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbachof VfL Wolfsburg, Borussia Mönchengladbach
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,759 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6e8…bfbbbacked VfL Wolfsburg24c1,482$358 inLost-$357.630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Borussia Mönchengladbach76c652.29$496 inWon+$156.551,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked VfL Wolfsburg23c400$92 inLost-$924837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfddc…931abacked Borussia Mönchengladbach77c394.48$304 inWon+$90.73850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Borussia Mönchengladbach76c284.19$216 inWon+$68.213,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Borussia Mönchengladbach78c264$206 inWon+$58.0828755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed VfL Wolfsburg16c259.29$42 inLost-$41.5853140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Borussia Mönchengladbach77c220.38$170 inWon+$50.372,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.