Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4148149f63d20737d9ebb2ba35f6aaa6d8c0c694c01502c36bfd9d32606a35d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 49c | 12,404$6,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,106.75 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 7,358$4,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 3,834$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.73 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 60c | 3,115$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.99 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Under | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.97 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 2,980$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.53 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 1,848$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.9 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 44c | 1,537$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.72 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 1,440$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…96afbacked Under | 53c | 1,361$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 62c | 1,109$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.9 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 1,003$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 38c | 766.41$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.17 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 40c | 679.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 14c | 677.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 643.87$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 28c | 460.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.63 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 47c | 409.55$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d1…62eabacked Under | 40c | 357.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.79 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 60c | 325.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…3c89backed Over | 60c | 299.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 38c | 290$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 36c | 288.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 60c | 284.67$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 58c | 277.91$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.24 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 239.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.59 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 40c | 215$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 62c | 214.35$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 60c | 195.2$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…47abbacked Over | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 40c | 109.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 58c | 99.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 98.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 41c | 94.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 41c | 88.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 57c | 86.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 41c | 85.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 41c | 75.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 40c | 73.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 41c | 70.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 40c | 66.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 43c | 66.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 39c | 59.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 71c | 56.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 40c | 55.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Over | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 41c | 47.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 60c | 43.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 39.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Over | 43c | 39.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 38.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 60c | 36.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 39c | 36.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4013backed Under | 41c | 27.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 47c | 25.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…bcfebacked Over | 47c | 23.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.