Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c6384fa599ea2106d5b0e4c72d2daa0bb182d94b0f204c8935440e34e753ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 6,549$4,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 38c | 6,063$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.45 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 39c | 3,739$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.78 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 2,428$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.04 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 2,393$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 10c | 1,990$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.04 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 63c | 1,363$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.18 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 62c | 1,100$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 862.78$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.42 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 62c | 773.16$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.8 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 30c | 619.34$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Under | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Under | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 38c | 481.4$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.93 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 61c | 460$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 427.1$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.26 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 26c | 299.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 270.34$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 62c | 248.27$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…5c7cbacked Under | 63c | 194.01$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 77c | 181.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 147.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 21c | 130.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 77c | 67.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 63c | 62.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 62c | 60.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 38c | 48.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 62c | 40.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 62c | 37.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed Over | 38c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 77c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.