Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9561161e8768670473244f76b7e0a636b3df948ac2d041458948b9e81213034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 5,966$2,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.37 | 3,288 | 42.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L | -74.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 46c | 3,105$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.98 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 2,177$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.83 | 642 | 43.9%282 W · 360 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 54c | 1,261$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.68 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 3c | 1,130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 450 | 55.3%249 W · 201 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 54c | 913.34$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.2 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 2c | 830.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 816$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.47 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 46c | 740$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 13c | 729.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 625.25$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.67 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 524.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.59 | 1,691 | 45%761 W · 930 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 35c | 480.38$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 427.83$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.03 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 53c | 299.57$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.77 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 237.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 14c | 222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 70c | 157.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 32c | 119.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 545 | 40.9%223 W · 322 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…ad77backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 348 | 55.5%193 W · 155 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 39c | 98.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 98.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…1c93backed Under | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Under | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Under | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 47.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,315 | 40.6%534 W · 781 L | -44.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Under | 56c | 44.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…4d47backed Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 68c | 42.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 74c | 39.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…a474backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 52c | 35.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Under | 40c | 35.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 48c | 29.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Over | 70c | 27.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…5e45backed Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…5b4ebacked Under | 46c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 48c | 22.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked Over | 55c | 21.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Under | 80c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.