Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e18e714318d6fbf0d17f156223a458c708bf73e60b370d4b86cca25f5266be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CD Tondelaof FC Porto, CD Tondela
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed CD Tondela | 60c | 650.15$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.06 | 125 | 64%80 W · 45 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed FC Porto | 40c | 644.06$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.38 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CD Tondela | 71c | 490.22$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.79 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed CD Tondela | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Porto | 28c | 268.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…4e46backed FC Porto | 38c | 167.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked FC Porto | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed FC Porto | 39c | 74.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Porto | 30c | 49.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed CD Tondela | 61c | 48.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked CD Tondela | 61c | 46.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked CD Tondela | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CD Tondela | 74c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)this page
- FC Porto vs. CD Tondela: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. CD Tondela: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. CD Tondela: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. CD Tondela: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.