Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e30b92aa86d7709ae958c80ffb265a821ecc9e274fe9357920650c1bd33fe1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 59c | 383.75$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.89 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 250.97$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 248.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 210.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 67c | 143.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 61c | 128.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 117.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 49c | 111.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 50c | 106.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 32c | 105.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…8fefbacked Yes | 68c | 99.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 22c | 97.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 19c | 92.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 54c | 88.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 62c | 78.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 52c | 71.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…bfd3backed Yes | 19c | 69.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 63.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35c…ff41backed No | 50c | 60.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 46c | 44.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 44c | 42.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 51c | 40.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 51c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 32.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 57c | 32.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 34c | 29.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 51c | 27.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 26.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 26.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 23.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 55c | 23.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…07f3backed Yes | 57c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 21.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 58c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 59c | 17.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 69c | 15.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 80c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.