Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9de16bd071a81c614370d1006d578d9593820b35ea13b29ecd932aa73181962c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.69$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 45c | 253.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 41c | 150.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 59c | 149.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 148.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 132.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 37c | 127.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 124.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 39c | 119.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 37c | 110.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 54c | 105.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 103.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 95.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 94.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 94.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 41c | 94.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 64c | 87.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 60c | 80.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 64c | 78.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 67c | 71.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 58c | 65.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 62.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 42c | 56.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 54.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 38c | 54.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 38c | 49.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 42c | 49.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…07f3backed Yes | 39c | 47.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 22c | 46.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 62c | 44.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 43.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 38c | 40.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 36c | 35.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 35c | 33.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 60c | 30.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 29.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 46c | 29.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 55c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 57c | 25.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 24.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…3db6backed Yes | 46c | 24.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 23.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 55c | 20.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 64c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.