Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e54f3fec1b58d09ed2408d0d8f550ede85a445e012215e4d6cb9f4787a83de7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 30c | 209.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 13c | 166.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 153.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 23c | 142.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 142.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 110.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed Yes | 17c | 101.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 98.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 57c | 84.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 62c | 68.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 27c | 66.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 18c | 62.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 37c | 56.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 30c | 56.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 37c | 49.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 77c | 49.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 43.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 43.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…062dbacked Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 65c | 37.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 31.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 60c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 56c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 50c | 27.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 79c | 25.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed No | 76c | 21.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…511abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 19.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 77c | 17.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.