Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e5e2a747bdc4672b5b3b3447955241f46504f4afe758bebf8e5204565728d89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,619$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 1,065$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 26c | 969.62$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 71c | 870.42$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 405.28$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Over | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 19c | 138$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 19c | 81.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 27c | 41.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.