Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b75d5de112433de4dd89f62edd1ccc196f6f28fa4d8636ba16c1dd9bef85a3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 9,296$4,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,514.97 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…0b1bbacked Under | 49c | 5,380$2,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,636 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 4,780$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Under | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…66b7backed Under | 48c | 2,703$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 2,269$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.7 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 47c | 2,142$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 1,494$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.27 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Under | 50c | 930.2$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Over | 53c | 866.63$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.32 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 659.22$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.52 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ce…8f73backed Under | 11c | 599.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +446.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…5b66backed Under | 11c | 499.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 476.81$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.18 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…fe50backed Under | 48c | 433.33$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 53c | 413.46$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.33 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over | 52c | 351.91$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.92 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Over | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 53c | 125.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 50c | 124.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Over | 51c | 115.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 51c | 98.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 40c | 82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…1b9cbacked Over | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 70.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 52c | 62.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 58.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Over | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Under | 56c | 49.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 52c | 36.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…2866backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…641ebacked Over | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.