Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7abcff1ed574b96541e56da086c34b2faf70c514ba284f975378a69d9912ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34ec…b7cfbacked No | 7c | 9,300$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 14c | 1,783$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.22 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 977.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 22c | 960.78$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.98 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…baa6backed No | 19c | 771.95$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 2c | 523.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec04…d8b2backed No | 13c | 378$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 319.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 252.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 232.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.02 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 149.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 137.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 8c | 135.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 121.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 115.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 60c | 102.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Yes | 30c | 94.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 26c | 94.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…788bbacked Yes | 33c | 67.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed Yes | 55c | 51.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 49.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 45.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 39.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 73c | 36.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 36.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 69c | 30.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…744ebacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…ca6dbacked Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 57c | 27.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c0…fb99backed No | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 62c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked No | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 55°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 70°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.