Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 70°F or higher on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9fcd6d01907268503db18b24b5ede33a532d8e567a34a770da3f2b8070d15f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 14c | 1,447$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.39 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 982.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 723.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 71c | 677.88$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.57 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 9c | 561.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 5c | 488.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 5c | 462.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked Yes | 21c | 399.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbd…0351backed Yes | 14c | 353.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 43c | 322.85$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.31 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 310.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 6c | 309.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…16e0backed Yes | 4c | 298.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 289.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 287.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 58c | 238.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 228.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a3…ea60backed Yes | 14c | 199.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…ad12backed Yes | 9c | 187.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…5029backed Yes | 10c | 173.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 170.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…55b1backed Yes | 11c | 135.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…aa0cbacked Yes | 9c | 115.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 102.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 39c | 98.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…1844backed No | 75c | 96.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 63c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6c…744ebacked Yes | 53c | 94.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 17c | 94.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 45c | 86.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 62c | 86.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 58c | 82.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 13c | 77.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…6521backed Yes | 55c | 75.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes | 55c | 60.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 59.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…04edbacked Yes | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…0365backed Yes | 22c | 52.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 54c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…59eabacked Yes | 54c | 48.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…f314backed Yes | 21c | 47.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…0581backed Yes | 48c | 45.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 56c | 45.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 55c | 34.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 55c | 31.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…788bbacked Yes | 53c | 31.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…6a7ebacked No | 58c | 30.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 29.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 47c | 28.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…c804backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…9c43backed Yes | 53c | 26.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed No | 63c | 26.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…a546backed Yes | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…f9a7backed Yes | 48c | 24.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…abd7backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed Yes | 58c | 18.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…7574backed Yes | 68c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 70°F or higher on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 55°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.