Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e91d54b808e505c478105c25b53de0325337e30ab8d779ea348c2e8b84b17c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4338…3359backed Yes | 3c | 3,956$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 4c | 570.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 156.48$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 123.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 71c | 115.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 102.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 94.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 34c | 83.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 80.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 43c | 78.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 67.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 29c | 51.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 49.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 46.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb08…0bc6backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 42.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 41.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 48c | 38.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 49c | 38.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 38.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 28.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 63c | 26.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 64c | 22.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 22.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 65c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.