Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed0ab025a72584d419e3d27762ad156415b1130c73f9b6fbf68f3c342625183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06c0…e618backed L1ga Team | 78c | 5,874$4,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.72 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 3,608$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…d7f4backed L1ga Team | 72c | 2,532$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Ilbirs eSports | 2c | 1,924$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…03bbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 934.32$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.81 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team | 76c | 811.91$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.67 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…ac38backed L1ga Team | 69c | 729.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 723.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.41 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 642.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…4703backed Ilbirs eSports | 10c | 499.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…42f9backed L1ga Team | 74c | 474.17$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 460$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…3e5dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 14c | 385.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed L1ga Team | 80c | 306.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Ilbirs eSports | 18c | 273.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 220.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 77c | 190.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,834 | 43.6%1,236 W · 1,598 L | -39.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed L1ga Team | 73c | 164.15$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 157.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 151.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked L1ga Team | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 131.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe473…c4bdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed L1ga Team | 71c | 125.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 118.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed L1ga Team | 73c | 117.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 107.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c248backed Ilbirs eSports | 11c | 106.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…7b41backed Ilbirs eSports | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…456bbacked L1ga Team | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked L1ga Team | 74c | 99.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 98.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Ilbirs eSports | 19c | 93.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 87.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 86.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 84.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ilbirs eSports | 13c | 82.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Ilbirs eSports | 28c | 79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…583abacked L1ga Team | 74c | 75.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…51f6backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 65.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked L1ga Team | 77c | 64.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 64.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked L1ga Team | 74c | 60.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…dd13backed L1ga Team | 79c | 57.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed L1ga Team | 73c | 54.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42f3…e4a0backed L1ga Team | 75c | 49.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed L1ga Team | 75c | 47.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked L1ga Team | 71c | 46.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked L1ga Team | 45c | 43.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…808dbacked L1ga Team | 77c | 39.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 39.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked L1ga Team | 55c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed L1ga Team | 60c | 33.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…2dc7backed L1ga Team | 74c | 32.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked L1ga Team | 71c | 31.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…fcd4backed L1ga Team | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed L1ga Team | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed L1ga Team | 63c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…d85fbacked L1ga Team | 80c | 23.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…4b19backed L1ga Team | 73c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…1336backed L1ga Team | 71c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…3b53backed L1ga Team | 74c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…e779backed L1ga Team | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…75f6backed L1ga Team | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c88…425cbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed L1ga Team | 76c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed L1ga Team | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ea…5db4backed L1ga Team | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…ed68backed L1ga Team | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.