Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4edb2d2967a0a306414f6f7b3a4dbe788de604c30aa4343f30ed35b35a5bba5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 57c | 40,001$22,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,900.46 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 42c | 29,993$12,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,395.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 45c | 10,208$4,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,614.82 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 63c | 907.93$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed No | 20c | 259.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +405.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 215$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 60c | 165.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…5747backed Yes | 59c | 164.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…1bd7backed Yes | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 10c | 155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +952.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…529fbacked Yes | 76c | 131.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…6853backed No | 45c | 122.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…0972backed No | 45c | 114.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 55c | 104.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 58c | 98.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…ad4fbacked Yes | 59c | 88.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 40c | 88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 44c | 78.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Yes | 56c | 68.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 32c | 54.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 41c | 44.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f806backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cab…e9c4backed Yes | 52c | 36.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…3d62backed Yes | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will FC Famalicão vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Rio Ave FC win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.