Champions League · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ee19a596e49b6f573bb82791050757d6d6e38456f4291cc7ae0cfea16902b99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc311…44fcbacked Over | 15c | 8,117$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Over | 15c | 6,565$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 15c | 2,126$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.92 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 15c | 1,249$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.42 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 17c | 337.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 14c | 292.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 16c | 274$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 16c | 64.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.