Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 166.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f2fc3b7aed4c7c3cb398732f897ee36d0af52418938cabecea61446889061cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 48c | 9,371$4,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,890 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 49c | 6,355$3,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,116.81 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,767$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.11 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.2 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 537.61$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.67 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Over | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 52c | 40.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 51c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 51c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Over | 48c | 24.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Over | 51c | 23.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…e3e9backed Over | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 166.5this page
- Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State RacersBelmont Bruins won
- Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 165.5Under won
- Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 167.5Under won
- Spread: Belmont Bruins (-1.5)Belmont Bruins won
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-1.5)Belmont Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.