Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Murray State Racers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x760cfd3c76f0a296fc5221e21b4b0824c9fc59ba5e585345431c95d6cdde91a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belmont Bruinsof Murray State Racers, Belmont Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Belmont Bruins | 52c | 8,243$4,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,956.6 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Belmont Bruins | 51c | 6,500$3,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,184.99 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 5,539$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.33 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Murray State Racers | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Murray State Racers | 49c | 2,499$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.17 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Belmont Bruins | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.25 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Murray State Racers | 50c | 1,985$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Murray State Racers | 47c | 1,667$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.28 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Murray State Racers | 48c | 1,418$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.84 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Belmont Bruins | 50c | 1,210$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Murray State Racers | 48c | 840$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.23 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…bf06backed Belmont Bruins | 56c | 799.99$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…fd2dbacked Murray State Racers | 44c | 799.99$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Belmont Bruins | 53c | 743$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.13 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Murray State Racers | 47c | 439$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.33 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Murray State Racers | 47c | 434.22$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Murray State Racers | 51c | 392.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Belmont Bruins | 54c | 335.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Belmont Bruins | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Belmont Bruins | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Belmont Bruins | 53c | 101.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Belmont Bruins | 61c | 100.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Murray State Racers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Murray State Racers | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Murray State Racers | 46c | 42.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Belmont Bruins | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Murray State Racers | 49c | 33.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Murray State Racers | 45c | 32.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 26.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Murray State Racers | 48c | 23.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5ebbbacked Murray State Racers | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4674backed Murray State Racers | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-1.5)this page
- Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State RacersBelmont Bruins won
- Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 165.5Under won
- Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 166.5Under won
- Belmont Bruins vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 167.5Under won
- Spread: Belmont Bruins (-1.5)Belmont Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.