Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f52a4dca29502ba6e6e1683305af43cd5a1fb03b8fd0d6290f005758a7e9c3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 25c | 6,409$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.11 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 75c | 6,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 79c | 1,169$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.43 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 728.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…84d1backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 109 | 71.6%78 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 130.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Yes | 21c | 113.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 78c | 102.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 101.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed No | 59c | 101.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 79c | 91.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 76c | 90.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 80c | 89.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 26c | 83.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 24c | 81.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 79c | 68.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 20c | 57.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 72c | 38.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 146 | 58.9%86 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 38.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 59c | 32.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 70c | 27.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 149 | 75.8%113 W · 36 L | +26.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd45c…bb50backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 75c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.