Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f8927497d5c0cb1b3a3143bb3d7976df1cf62e6ec678a96f1d2ae81e51ff65b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,715 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 456.42$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 11c | 324.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ba…d397backed No | 8c | 311.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 62c | 193.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 181.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 8c | 174.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 158.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 148.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 52c | 138$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 42c | 125.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 121.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 60c | 118.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 104.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 24c | 104.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 46c | 100.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 43c | 93.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 93.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…6bf6backed Yes | 30c | 82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 51c | 77.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 76.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 77c | 71.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…059abacked Yes | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 54.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 20c | 53.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 37c | 53.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35df…84d2backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 60c | 44.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 56c | 44.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 32c | 43.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 34c | 36.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 60c | 33.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 54c | 31.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 30.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 34c | 29.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…b710backed No | 68c | 26.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 68c | 17.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.