Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f9df1e46c2aa1970a096356baf169fb656824fce0f5ddd2c50e5d146b4cdfd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,391$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.21 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 2,370$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,793.81 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked No | 76c | 1,800$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…be48backed No | 76c | 373.42$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 77c | 319.74$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 175.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 74c | 161.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Yes | 65c | 154.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…a1eebacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe96c…3c52backed Yes | 24c | 100.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 77c | 98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 25c | 52.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…c02abacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 23.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…5031backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-11-06?No won
- Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-11-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.