Tennis · resolved market
Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nishesh Basavareddy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa51a904ac39488d7249f910e7505ced9504b642f8e87b518750f50e45bd526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Struffof Struff, Basavareddy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Struff | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Basavareddy | 15c | 1,863$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Basavareddy | 57c | 1,409$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Basavareddy | 37c | 1,258$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.92 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Struff | 79c | 915.51$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.61 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Struff | 74c | 743.17$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.17 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Struff | 44c | 704.26$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.2 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Basavareddy | 49c | 688.65$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.73 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Basavareddy | 45c | 499.33$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.92 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked Struff | 54c | 462.51$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.13 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Basavareddy | 47c | 443.53$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.46 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Struff | 44c | 387.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.65 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Struff | 71c | 337.77$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.04 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Struff | 53c | 275.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.38 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Basavareddy | 45c | 249.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Struff | 47c | 236$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Basavareddy | 50c | 232$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Basavareddy | 36c | 219.43$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Struff | 42c | 137.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Struff | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Struff | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Basavareddy | 26c | 121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Basavareddy | 43c | 108.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Struff | 44c | 106.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Basavareddy | 23c | 86.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Struff | 46c | 86.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Basavareddy | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Struff | 79c | 80.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Basavareddy | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Basavareddy | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Struff | 44c | 70.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Basavareddy | 50c | 64.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Struff | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Struff | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Basavareddy | 55c | 39.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Basavareddy | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…dbc5backed Basavareddy | 56c | 35.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…9ff7backed Struff | 47c | 35.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Struff | 46c | 31.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…cea2backed Struff | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4738backed Struff | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Basavareddy | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…5729backed Struff | 59c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…7977backed Struff | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nishesh Basavareddythis page
- Set 1 Winner: Struff vs BasavareddyStruff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.