MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fe7d5a5fbc1064101b1517a5b4e28d7c41e75769b7e945b78fbdd7f6f4aeca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,867 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe278…b608backed Houston Astros | 59c | 999.98$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Houston Astros | 56c | 509.15$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.88 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 500.07$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.04 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 347$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.47 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Washington Nationals | 26c | 264.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…4925backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 260.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 226.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros | 80c | 214.2$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 153.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Houston Astros | 57c | 140.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 139.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Houston Astros | 56c | 123.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 112.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 73.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Washington Nationals | 20c | 72.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 71.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 69.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…2837backed Washington Nationals | 24c | 57.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 55c | 52.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Washington Nationals | 23c | 49.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 48.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Houston Astros | 80c | 46.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 77c | 45.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Houston Astros | 57c | 42.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 29.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Houston Astros | 74c | 28.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Houston Astros | 59c | 21.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Houston Astros | 77c | 13.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.