Tennis · resolved market
Athens Open, Qualification: Nao Hibino vs Miriana Tona
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5020de4141206378a8b70b1bc24d7627e611e258689bb0fb0a1df6401def6410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nao Hibinoof Nao Hibino, Miriana Tona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Miriana Tona | 31c | 44,023$13,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,820 | 717 | 29.8%214 W · 503 L | -39.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nao Hibino | 69c | 17,934$12,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,475.94 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nao Hibino | 70c | 14,413$10,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320.53 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…c46ebacked Miriana Tona | 1c | 14,150$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 282 | 21.6%61 W · 221 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Nao Hibino | 67c | 5,147$3,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.35 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Miriana Tona | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Nao Hibino | 77c | 2,316$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.53 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Miriana Tona | 34c | 1,739$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.26 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Nao Hibino | 66c | 1,250$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Miriana Tona | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Miriana Tona | 35c | 668.97$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 1,363 | 38.3%522 W · 841 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Nao Hibino | 73c | 441.72$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…d29fbacked Miriana Tona | 24c | 389.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 306 | 42.2%129 W · 177 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Nao Hibino | 73c | 323.14$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Nao Hibino | 71c | 251.62$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 330 | 62.7%207 W · 123 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe214…1283backed Miriana Tona | 13c | 241.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Nao Hibino | 72c | 149.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Miriana Tona | 23c | 136.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Miriana Tona | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miriana Tona | 17c | 116.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Nao Hibino | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Nao Hibino | 75c | 112.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Miriana Tona | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Miriana Tona | 12c | 104.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3d67backed Miriana Tona | 28c | 68.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Nao Hibino | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Nao Hibino | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Miriana Tona | 34c | 59.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Miriana Tona | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Nao Hibino | 72c | 40.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 252 | 59.9%151 W · 101 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Nao Hibino | 73c | 39.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nao Hibino | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Nao Hibino | 70c | 27.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 356 | 49.4%176 W · 180 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…b18ebacked Nao Hibino | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…24efbacked Nao Hibino | 73c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Nao Hibino | 70c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nao Hibino | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed Nao Hibino | 79c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athens Open, Qualification: Nao Hibino vs Miriana Tonathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Hibino vs TonaHibino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.