College Football · resolved market
Houston vs. BYU
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5027f1606f3d46767e07070e2ad07eb95209fdeab270cbd053333aad1a4c148b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof Houston, BYU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Houston | 10c | 11,055$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed BYU | 71c | 2,936$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.52 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Houston | 29c | 2,407$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.38 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Houston | 19c | 1,787$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.51 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Houston | 16c | 1,570$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…2f33backed Houston | 11c | 1,501$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Houston | 17c | 1,300$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…8d4bbacked Houston | 14c | 656.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…fe27backed Houston | 20c | 654.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed BYU | 78c | 380.57$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Houston | 18c | 371.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Houston | 3c | 332.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Houston | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Houston | 9c | 233.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb715…a663backed BYU | 77c | 203.81$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Houston | 16c | 195.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked Houston | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…eeaabacked Houston | 22c | 141.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Houston | 10c | 138.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Houston | 19c | 129.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Houston | 22c | 92.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…0596backed Houston | 36c | 74.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f52…c254backed BYU | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.