Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50397dc5e10211f41d8730f54b5fb57099565ce8bfb6c72e348ffbb411ba4c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 575.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 428.62$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 310.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 300.89$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 278.73$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 7c | 255$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 16c | 182.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 58c | 152.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 132.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 131.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 115.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 106.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 34c | 104$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 74c | 91.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 82.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 22c | 70.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 63.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 53.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 50.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 49.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 30c | 48.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked No | 74c | 46.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 38c | 46.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 44.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f21ebacked Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 30c | 40.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 78c | 38.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 36.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 80c | 30.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…81dcbacked No | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 74c | 22.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 73c | 17.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…8456backed No | 79c | 17.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 71c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 69°F or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.