Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b1a50fafa3cf9b25e509084baebbdfd527304d0e9d828cb83057ef628b6eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 41c | 683.24$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 336.85$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 65c | 310$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 216.67$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 177.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 165.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 162.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 49c | 130.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed Yes | 55c | 100.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 58c | 98.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 71c | 87.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 70c | 87.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 76c | 80.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 69.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…978bbacked No | 62c | 68.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 67.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 64.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 38c | 62.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 56.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…bab1backed Yes | 72c | 54.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 49c | 53.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 52.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 51.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 46.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 41c | 40.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 37.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 34.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 60c | 34.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…a5a8backed No | 60c | 31.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 28.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 28.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 71c | 27.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed Yes | 79c | 25.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc971…731ebacked Yes | 44c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 23.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 22.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 66c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked No | 53c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 61c | 20.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 60c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…4c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 69°F or below on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.