Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x503beb66da4365d48a0d1f551869b7429e9b1662e251ac3b36ee3bbdb48dca8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villaof Aston Villa, Bournemouth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aston Villa | 59c | 2,949$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.75 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Aston Villa | 38c | 2,000$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.77 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Bournemouth | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bournemouth | 58c | 1,382$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.29 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bournemouth | 1c | 1,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Bournemouth | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Aston Villa | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…0fc2backed Bournemouth | 61c | 204.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bournemouth | 58c | 186.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Bournemouth | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Bournemouth | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…1106backed Bournemouth | 32c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…ec0ebacked Bournemouth | 57c | 35.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Bournemouth | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…49aabacked Bournemouth | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…7b63backed Aston Villa | 45c | 31.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Aston Villa | 44c | 28.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa (-0.5)this page
- Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.