Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce8170e29e11a73106db64ddab81f39c70ef86f247233b099cb7c644aff1a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 47c | 8,160$3,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.44 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 7,231$3,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,551.98 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 51c | 3,999$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.65 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 53c | 3,763$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.38 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 3,502$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.15 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Over | 53c | 2,208$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.76 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 887.95$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.65 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…8429backed Over | 58c | 863.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 53c | 617.87$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.94 | 255 | 45.5%116 W · 139 L | -18.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 52c | 385.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 48c | 308.59$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…7395backed Over | 53c | 288.68$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…cfedbacked Under | 47c | 288.32$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Under | 54c | 270$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…c75fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed Over | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…9e72backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 53c | 190.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under | 16c | 172.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 51c | 155.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 22c | 145$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 60c | 140.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 48c | 135.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Under | 54c | 121.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…a1a1backed Over | 56c | 119.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…d81fbacked Over | 46c | 106.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 57c | 105.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 136 | 56.6%77 W · 59 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…2798backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…4e1ebacked Under | 54c | 96.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 32c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…13d4backed Under | 39c | 88.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Over | 51c | 88.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 49c | 65.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Under | 49c | 61.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Under | 48c | 54.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 78c | 46.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…7777backed Under | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…d081backed Over | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Over | 50c | 44.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 362 | 59.1%214 W · 148 L | +23.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…c1dfbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Under | 48c | 38.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Under | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 62c | 34.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 32.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Over | 73c | 31.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…5b5abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…7b63backed Under | 50c | 28.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…ed19backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: O/U 2.5this page
- Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Aston Villa (-0.5)Aston Villa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.