Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5079f5e02175e5f7ca9dcd2c14f6a21412a465950d5a9dbc89c23a0c3e32bece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 2,423$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.2 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 2c | 1,900$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 1,830$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.06 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 40c | 1,505$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.7 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 1,347$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.02 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 520.19$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.74 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…02cfbacked Over | 28c | 348$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 40c | 301.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 66c | 295.45$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 41c | 270.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 218.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.17 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 47c | 203.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.72 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 41c | 182.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 32c | 172.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 41c | 169.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…8f46backed Over | 36c | 145.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…dc27backed Over | 40c | 126.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…29b4backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…92babacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 59c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 26c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 40c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 40c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…9312backed Over | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Hellas Verona FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.