Serie A · resolved market
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2bb69c954c2a26d7d52bf6bb7018c69ee0d9a6e96b107baee5d4a3e1908522e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hellas Verona FCof ACF Fiorentina, Hellas Verona FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hellas Verona FC | 80c | 7,924$6,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.68 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed ACF Fiorentina | 23c | 3,225$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.44 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ACF Fiorentina | 23c | 2,811$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.63 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…f034backed ACF Fiorentina | 16c | 1,983$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hellas Verona FC | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Hellas Verona FC | 79c | 773.53$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.46 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed ACF Fiorentina | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed ACF Fiorentina | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked ACF Fiorentina | 22c | 351.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed ACF Fiorentina | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed ACF Fiorentina | 24c | 62.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed ACF Fiorentina | 27c | 60.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hellas Verona FC | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hellas Verona FC | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Hellas Verona FC | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed ACF Fiorentina | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hellas Verona FC | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Hellas Verona FC | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.