Premier League · resolved market
Joao Pedro: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x508cd72fb2d2d1b27d42e934f6df9817955701238a8b4e91ba2b1d01cb56c900
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Yes | 49c | 452.81$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.81 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 51c | 340.74$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.78 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 48c | 252.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f5…1a48backed Yes | 48c | 208.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +65%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 45c | 154.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…fa8ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeff…42fbbacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 30c | 35.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 220 | 40.5%89 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…7e23backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…87aebacked Yes | 48c | 33.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…f790backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3924…ee05backed No | 69c | 22.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Joao Pedro: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Alejandro Garnacho: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Cole Palmer: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Igor Jesus: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Jesse Derry: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Morgan Gibbs-White: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.